Parade Magazine Articles
Can
We Still Rely On An Old Ally?
May 25, 1997
Contributing
Editor James Webb is a former US Secretary of the Navy, and a
recipient of the Navy Cross and the Silver Star for his service in
Vietnam. He is the author of four novels, including the Vietnam
classic "Fields of Fire." A frequent traveler to East Asia, he
currently is working on a novel about the Philippines in World War
II. With the increase in concern over the military and economic
growth of China and its effect on the Asian-Pacific nations, we
asked Webb to report on the significance of the Philippines, one of
our strongest allies in the region, since the U.S. has reduced its
military presence there.
I AM SITTING IN A RICHLY paneled, book-lined greeting room
inside historic Malacanang Palace, waiting to interview Fidel V.
Ramos, the 12th president of the Republic of the Philippines. I have
a question to ask him that is vitally important to America's future
in Asia:
As Asia changes. can the U.S. still count the Philippines
as an ally?
The last time I met with Ramos was in 1987. I was U.S.
Secretary of the Navy. He was chief of staff of the Philippines'
armed forces. A year before, the Philippines had gone through the
trauma of what they now call the "People Power Revolution," ousting
the martial-law government of Ferdinand Marcos. Ramos had been a key
player in that revolution, and it was clear to me that his future
was larger than his role as the nation's chief military officer.
The Philippines was a different country following the
chaotic revolution. Its economic growth was at a standstill.
Filipinos could be seen living in boxes and sleeping in makeshift
hammocks in trees along Manila Bay. The U.S. presence was most
visible in its military installations at Subic Bay and Clark Air
Force Base, which had been a part of the Philippines landscape for
nearly 90 years.
At that time, the Soviet Union kept its largest fleet in
the Pacific. At Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay, the Soviets regularly based
two dozen warships as well as an imposing air force. At our 1987
meeting, I had given Ramos a photograph of a Soviet MiG that was
trying to intimidate a U.S. Navy aircraft in international air-
space between Vietnam and the Philip- pines. My message had been
simple: The Philippines should not lose sight of international
dangers d1at were the consequence of its strategic location at the
heart of the world's most dynamic economies.
There was no disagreement on that point, although the West
Point educated general emphasized the Philippines' difficu1t
domestic situation. I came away impressed and confident that he
believed the Philippines ought to remain closely aligned with the
U.S. I predicted upon my departure that Ramos would be president. In
1992 Filipino voters elected him to a single six-year term.
The country has prospered under his leadership. The
Philippines, once the "sick man of Asia," now boasts an economic
growth of 7 percent a year. Per capita income has doubled in the
last decade. A recent survey by the Far Eastern Economic Review
ranked the Philippines as the best place to invest among 10
Asian-Pacific nations and the country least likely to experience
political upheaval. Last fall Ramos was host to 18 world leaders,
including President Clinton, at the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation forum overlooking the former U.S. Navy base at Subic
Bay.
These advances have taken place in a dramatically altered
international climate. The U.S. bases have been gone from Subic and
Clark for five years. The Russians are no longer in force in Cam
Ranh Bay. But the lowered U.S. presence has been matched by a
looming threat: an energized and potentially expansionist China. The
entire region is nervous and unsure of what the future holds. A
large factor in the uncertainty is whether the U.S. in- tends to
hold fast to its Asian interests.
These questions have particular resonance among the 70
million people of the Philippines. On the one hand, they are now
adamant about showing their independence from the U.S.; on the
other, they are proud of the role they have played as our friend and
ally in World War II, Korea, Vietnam and the Cold War. China has
been aggressively growing its military, particularly its naval
forces. If China were to increase its bullying throughout the
region, the willingness of "second-tier" countries such as the
Philippines to join the U.S. in facing down such moves would be
essential.
President Ramos enters the briefing room and greets me. He
takes his seat at a wide wooden desk into which a glowing computer
screen has been built. At 69, he is a pleasant, intense man whose
seriousness is offset by dry humor and a pixie grin. Like most
Filipinos, he has strong personal attachments to the U.S. But when
asked about the U.S. and the Philippines as strategic partners,
Ramos deflects the question.
The greatest continuing benefit of a strong relationship
with the U.S., he insists, is trade. "The U.S. is our No.1 trading
partner," he declares, "still our No.1 investor." Pressed, he
volunteers that the other major connection between the two countries
is "the people factor."
"Filipino-Americans are our largest overseas population,"
he says. "Filipinos of all ages love the United States. Unlike the
Spanish [who colonized the Philippines for nearly 400 years], the
U.S. put a nationwide educational system in place and emphasized the
teaching of English."
Ramos is being coy, but he is not wrong on either count.
Despite recent large in- vestments by Japanese and Chinese
companies, the U.S. accounts for 33 percent of the Philippines'
exports, 20 percent of its imports. U.S. companies also have ear-
marked $12 billion for investment in the next five years. And the
"people factor" is enormous. An estimated 30,000 Americans visit the
Philippines each month. And Americans of Filipino descent have
become the largest Asian-American population, now about 2 million,
the U.S. ambassador to the Philippines told me.
But Ramos declines to comment on U.S.--Philippines security
interests. Asked about the threat brought by China, he anchors
himself in Asia. He mentions the growing importance of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and concludes by
saying, "We hope all the players will continue to be engaged. We are
in the middle of all this, geographically and otherwise, and we must
take a balancing position. The big players may have their competing
interests, but we want to see stability."
Ramos' insistence on neutrality represents either careful
diplomacy designed not to arouse the Chinese or a reluctance to see
the Chinese threat for what it is. Either way, it sends a message
that future Chinese aggression will be viewed as a "great power"
issue rather than a regional concern.
If our alliance is weakening, it is because American
government action is not matching the efforts of American business
in this vital region, while the energy of other governments has
increased. The U.S. military rarely operates in the
Philippines anymore, and American diplomacy has been markedly uneven
as it affects our national interests in the entire region.
By contrast, the day I arrived in Manila, the Chinese
defense minister was wrapping up a lengthy visit by announcing a
plan for future cooperation on defense issues. And Ramos-who last
year performed the extraordinary feat of bringing internationally
backed Muslim secessionists on the island of Mindanao into a
substantive peace process-was leaving after our interview on a trip
that would include India as well as key Muslim nations from Pakistan
to Bahrain.
What of the future? At present, Ramos is precluded from
running for reelection, and his term will expire next year. Curious,
I posed the same questions to two younger leaders, both viewed to be
future presidential candidates. Roy Golez is a U.S. Naval Academy
alumnus who last year was named by the influential Philippines Free
Press as the country's out- standing congressman. Richard Gordon is
the chairman of the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, a free-trade
zone situated at the former U.S. Navy base.
Golez, 50, is a key ally of Ramos'. He was only 34 when
Ferdinand Marcos selected him to be postmaster general. He aligned
himself with Ramos during the 1986 revolution and now heads the key
congressional committee that oversees the national police and the
fight against crime.
Proud of his American ties, Golez nonetheless echoes Ramos
on U.S.- Philippines relations. The greatest benefit of this
relationship, he asserts, is trade, although the Philippines is also
"looking at tie-ups with giants emerging in such countries as
India." Stating that "sentimental reasons" lead many Filipinos to
view the U.S. as its most important strategic partner, Golez
insists, "We must cope with the realities. Japan is very visible,
with all its products dominating the market. The proximity of China,
Taiwan and ASEAN and Middle East countries gives us both interaction
and opportunities."
How does he view the Chinese threat? "With caution," says
Golez. "It's uncomfortable having a giant close to you." But then he
retreats to a historically inaccurate comparison- "China has no
history of expansion and imperialism, unlike Japan and Western
powers"-and predicts that China will be "a big but friendly, polite
neighbor."
Richard Gordon is less circumspect. Gordon, 51, grew up in
Olongapo, bordering the former U.S. base at Subic Bay. His
grandfather was an American soldier here who never went home. His
father was the first elected mayor of Olongapo and was killed in
1967 in a political assassination. Later his mother, and then Gordon
himself, was elected to the job. When the U.S. Navy left Subic,
resulting in the abrupt un- employment of 42,000 Filipinos, Gordon
led a group of volunteers who negotiated to turn Subic into a free-
trade zone. Today Gordon oversees the vast complex, where more than
150 companies have now signed on.
Rightly taking credit for Subic's new direction, Gordon
says it has resulted in "a calmer, stronger relationship" between
the U.S. and his country: "There are fewer things to blame on the
U.S. when agitators wish to cause trouble." At the same time, he is
upbeat about the contribution of the former U.S. bases to regional
peace: "The bases provided peace and prosperity for the entire
region and contributed to winning the Cold War."
Gordon is adamant that the U.S. remain a Pacific military
power. "The Philippines has no real military capability," he says.
"China's record on human rights and the growth of its military
trouble me. If the U.S. pulls out of Okinawa, it will put the entire
Asian- Pacific region at risk. Either a remilitarized Japan or an
expanding China would be tempted to fill the vacuum."
In these leaders, as with almost every Filipino, one finds
an affection for the U.S. and a desire to continue our unique
historical relationship. President Ramos speaks of the "people
factor." Congressman Golez predicts that "political and cultural
forces" between our two nations will "become even stronger with the
years." But it's Chair- man Gordon who most accurately defines the
problem: "The relationship between Americans and Filipinos remains
incredibly strong. What is lacking right now are the same strong
ties between our governments."
UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS